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Social Security benefits will increase by 3.2% in 2024 as inflation moderates_我的网站

东野圭吾推理系列

一 |

据《澳大利亚新闻》网站近日报道，尽管澳大利亚对美英提供的核潜艇抱有浓厚兴趣，但出于种种原因，美英两国短期内都无法为澳方提供核潜艇以接替其老旧的柯林斯级常规潜艇，澳海军未来或将陷入无潜艇可用的境地。 WASHINGTON -- Millions of Social Security recipients will get a 3.2% increase in their benefits in 2024, far less than this year's historic boost and reflecting moderating consumer prices.The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, means the average recipient will receive more than $50 more every month beginning in January, the Social Security Administration said Thursday. The AARP estimated that increase at $59 per month. “This will help millions of people keep up with expenses,” said Kilolo Kijakazi, Social Security’s acting commissioner.About 71 million people — including retirees, disabled people and children — receive Social Security benefits. Thursday's announcement follows this year’s 8.7% benefit increase, brought on by record 40-year-high inflation, which pushed up the price of consumer goods. With inflation easing, the next annual increase is markedly smaller.“Compared to last year's 8.7% increase, this is going to feel small and the perception is that its not keeping up with the inflation and the higher costs that retirees are still seeing,” said Martha Shedden, president of the National Association of Registered Social Security Analysts.On top of that, an anticipated increase in Medicare premiums for 2024 will eat into the Social Security cost-of-living bump.Medicare hasn’t announced the increase for traditional Medicare, but said the cost of Medicare Advantage plans is expected to remain stable.Still, senior advocates applauded the annual Social Security adjustment.“Retirees can rest a little easier at night knowing they will soon receive an increase in their Social Security checks to help them keep up with rising prices,” AARP CEO Jo Ann Jenkins said. “We know older Americans are still feeling the sting when they buy groceries and gas, making every dollar important." Social Security is financed by payroll taxes collected from workers and their employers. The maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes will be $168,600 for 2024, up from $160,200 for 2023. Retirees whose sole income comes from Social Security are not subject to taxes on that income.Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group for the social insurance program, said that the COLA is a “reminder of Social Security’s unique importance" and that “Congress should pass legislation to protect and expand benefits.”However, the program faces a severe financial shortfall in the coming years.The annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report released in March said the program’s trust fund will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2033. If the trust fund is depleted, the government will be able to pay only 77% of scheduled benefits, the report said.There have been legislative proposals to shore up Social Security, but they have not made it past committee hearings.A March poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that most U.S. adults are opposed to proposals that would cut into Medicare or Social Security benefits, and 79% of people polled said they oppose reducing the size of Social Security benefits.The Social Security Administration is still without a permanent leader. President Joe Biden in July nominated former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley to lead the agency.The COLA is calculated according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, or CPI. But there are calls for the agency to instead use a different index, the CPI-E, which measures price changes based on the spending patterns of the elderly, like health care, food and medicine costs.Any change to the calculation would require congressional approval. But with decades of inaction on Social Security and with the House at a standstill after the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., seniors and their advocates say they don’t have confidence any sort of change will be approved soon. The cost of living adjustments will have a big impact on people like Alfred Mason, an 83-year-old Louisiana resident. Mason said that “any increase is welcomed, because it sustains us for what we are going through.”As inflation is still high, he said, anything added to his income “would be greatly appreciated.”。

二 | 据外媒报道，美国目前正以1年2艘的速度建造弗吉尼亚级攻击核潜艇，同时还要建造哥伦比亚级战略核潜艇，加上近年来美国造船能力不断下降，外界纷纷猜测，澳大利亚短期内很难获得美国提供的核潜艇。当前，美国的4家军用造船厂中，只有2家具备建造核动力舰艇能力，且都面临设施陈旧、技术人员流失等问题。美海军战略核潜艇项目负责人斯科特·帕帕诺近期在接受采访时表示，协助澳大利亚获得核潜艇的计划，可能给已超负荷运转的美国造船厂带来更大负担。

三 | 美国传统基金会高级研究员布伦特·赛德勒也表示，首要任务是保障哥伦比亚级核潜艇的按时交付，“奥库斯”联盟的相关问题暂时排在后面。

四 | 美国表示“有心无力”，英国也同样难以指望。

五 | 目前，英国的新型核潜艇设计方案仍处于论证阶段，何时开工仍是未知，更无余力为澳大利亚提供支持。8月底，英国皇家海军第5艘机敏级攻击核潜艇“安森”号举行服役仪式，邀请澳大利亚副总理兼国防部长马勒斯出席。报道称，“安森”号核潜艇将接收澳海军官兵并对其进行培训，这也是“奥库斯”联盟合作协议的一部分，算是在三国核潜艇计划尚无实质性进展的情况下给澳方的一点安慰。分析人士认为，澳大利亚未来核潜艇在2040年前下水的可能性几乎为零。与此同时，澳海军现役的柯林斯级潜艇已服役多年，即使升级延寿也难堪大用。因此，澳大利亚亟须一款“过渡潜艇”来填补柯林斯级与未来核潜艇之间的空档。美国安都瑞尔技术公司今年3月与澳海军签署价值1.4亿美元的合同，约定在未来3年内交付3艘大型无人潜艇的原型艇。尽管该公司号称这些无人潜艇可下潜至6000米深度，但无人潜艇在综合战斗能力方面存在缺陷，且原型艇技术尚不完善，未来一段时期内只能作为有人潜艇的补充。

六 | 近期，韩国驻澳大使馆在一次小型会议上展出了该国研制建造、排水量达3700吨的KSS-Ⅲ型常规潜艇。韩国方面称，该型潜艇符合澳海军需求。目前，尚无消息显示澳海军对韩国潜艇有兴趣，但分析人士认为，客观上看，该型潜艇具有一定竞争力。

七 | 一方面，KSS-Ⅲ型常规潜艇具有吨位较大、长时间水下航行能力较强、居住条件较好等优点，符合澳海军未来一段时期的需求。另一方面，近年来韩澳军贸合作较为频繁。2021年底，韩国获得澳大利亚9.2亿美元订单，为澳方提供K-9自行火炮及配套的K-10弹药补给车。

八 | 目前，韩国研制的AS-21“红背蜘蛛”步兵战车也正参加澳陆军450辆新型步兵战车的竞标测试，据称获胜可能性较大。还有评论认为，当前澳大利亚面临巨大的经济问题，比起购买新的常规潜艇，租借或许更划算。无论是购买还是租借常规潜艇，对澳大利亚而言，都不是最佳选择。若是购买，除徒增经济负担外，未来核潜艇服役后，澳军无力也无必要维持一支“核常兼备”的潜艇部队。届时，常规潜艇将沦为“鸡肋”，即便以二手艇出售也回笼不了多少资金。若是租借，一是要有国家有租借意向，二是租借虽相对便宜，但租金和维护等费用也是一笔不小的开支。事实上，澳海军目前面临潜艇“断档”的根本原因，就是澳方不顾实际、超出本国防务需求，试图获得核潜艇。